Victorian Harvest Rain – What’s the National Impact?

Until a month ago, the Victorian winter crop had had a near perfect season and was on track to harvest a ‘bin buster’ crop with high malting selection that was forecast to make Victoria a significant contributor to the national tonnage and malting barley supplier globally. As late as the first week of December, Abares were forecasting Victoria to harvest a 9.6mmt winter crop, which is 28% above the 10 year average to 2022-23, but the quality of this crop or even the quantity must now be in some doubt.

While most Mallee, Northern Wimmera and North Central crops were harvested in good conditions, harvesting in the highly productive Southern Victorian regions has been hit with interruptions and downgrading is now a feature of what is being received.

In the week before Christmas, the Kardinian estimates 80% of the national crop had been harvested. Western Australia is finishing off the harvest in the Southern districts, South Australia, NSW and Queensland are mostly finished and Victoria is the only State with sizeable tonnages to go. We estimate that by mid December, when the heavy rains arrived in Victoria, there was still 3mmt (all crops) to harvest in the South East and at risk.

It remains to be seen in January what the effects of the rain has had on the quality and quantity of the remaining standing crop is but it’s our view the Australian malting barley harvest for crop 23/24 is over.