ABARES Uses Seasonal Conditions to Provide Further Guidance

Cross referencing the predominate weather pattern with each year’s cropping yield performance, ABARES has provided an interesting insight into how crop 23/24 may perform given the persistent El Nino & +IOD forecasts for Australia

The organization proposed that should an El Nino and + IOD weather pattern both materialize in Spring, crop yield prospects are likely to replicate those achieved in 2012-13.

This was the most recent year where an El Nino or a +IOD system immediately followed a La Nina event and a good start to the season. In that year, the resultant curtailed moisture availability later in the season restricted average production to below 2mt/ha and below current average production levels.

ABARES most recent forecast pegged Barley’s yield at 2.31mt/ha based on a 30% reduction from the record La Nina crop of 22/23. A lot of the potential of crop 23/24 is undoubtedly hinging on the development or not of these systems this Spring.