IGC forecasts a record total grains crop in 25/26, exceeding last year’s record

The International Grains Council (IGC) released its latest global grain production update on the 18 September. Revising upwards wheat and barley production, it has boosted the globe’s crop size by 8 mmt to reach 2.412 billion mt, an all-time global grain production record and up 4 percent year-on-year.

They reported increases for all crops, barring rye, and lifts the total supply (production plus carry-in) to above 3 billion mt for the first time ever. They have consumption forecast to reach an all-time high of 2.395 billion mt, including grains for food, feed and industrial uses, and the world’s ending stocks of grains are projected to expand by 17 mmt to 606 mmt. This is still slightly short of the five-year average but has some increase in maize and barley inventories.

The IGC has the Australian crop forecast to reach 52.8 mmt but this is well short of Abares September forecast of 62.0 mmt, so expect this to be revised upwards in next month’s estimate. Despite this, with a forecasted domestic consumption of 15.8 mmt, made up of 2.9 mmt for food, 0.9 mmt for Industrial and 10.7 for Feed, there will be more than 36 mmt of grain available for exports and a forecasted increase of carry-out stocks of 9.2 mmt.

With most of the world’s crops harvested for the 2025/26 season, these large numbers will weigh heavy on global markets. The final numbers for the Australian and South American crops are likely to be the only variables that change what is fundamentally a big year for grain!