ABARES Revises Its Australian Winter Crop Production Forecast

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) has increased its Australian Winter crop production forecast to 55.2mmt, +8% from its June publication.

The early break and good seasonal conditions in Queensland and New South Wales and the recovery of the Western Australian crop in August now has the total forecast 17% higher than the 10 year average, even though South Australia and Victoria have had a mixed season thus far. New South Wales is expected

to produce its 3rd highest crop ever bring it close to Western Australia’s production, which is remarkable considering its area to cropping is 70% of the Western Australian area.

With the late break across Southern Australia there has been a switch out of canola into other crops. Cereals have benefitted as growers seek to minimize production risk but interestingly lentils have gained ground in South Australia and Victoria on better gross margins while chickpeas have been the preferred alternative in NSW and Queensland by virtue of the good conditions and India announcing a tariff-free period for the Australian crop.

Barley production is forecast to increase 13% year-on-year to 12.2 mmt and +7% against the 10 year average, which would make it the 5th largest barley crop on record. Malting selection is expected to reach 3.5mmt, a 20% increase on the crop 23/24 availability.

Given the Northern harvest is close and weather modelling for Spring rainfall neutral, provided there are no extreme events, the forecast for an above average Winter crop is strong.