Australian 24/25 crop estimates: early calls have barley area and production up despite the dry start in the Central and Western regions

Sowing along the East coast is progressing at a good rate. Soil moisture in most areas of Queensland, NSW and Northern Victoria is at or near capacity enabling growers to rapidly plant their crops whenever there is a break in showers. The plant in the dryer areas of Australia, whilst not as advanced, is proceeding on the assumption rains will arrive in June.

Early estimates have the area planted to barley up 10% based on growers switching out of canola and into barley because of the low moisture in SA and WA. Industry is of the view that despite the dry sowing, enough rain will arrive in June/July to have all crops up and established before the cold weather arrives. Estimates have the Australian barley crop improving by 18% year on year, back to a tonnage just below the record levels seen over the last 5 years.

Given a steady domestic demand, the market is factoring in another exportable surplus of ~7mmt.

There is along way to go before the crop hits the bin but it’s hoped, rain next month, will get  the season back on track across the country.