Australian 24/25 Barley Crop:

Tonnage trimmed in WA and SA on late or minimal rain offset by confidence in the East.

With sowing of the Australian winter crop for season 24/25 all but complete, the industry has firmed up it’s production estimates.

Local industry analyst Lachstock Consulting has the Australian 24/25 Barley production forecast to reach 12.2 mmt. This is back slightly from last month on minimal rainfall in SA and late rain in WA while confidence is still strong in the East. Meanwhile, estimates from ABARES, USDA and Rabobank have the Australian barley crop at 11.5mmt, 10.9mmt and 10.0mmt respectively. Differences at this point are dependent on the assumptions made about winter rainfall: will it be average or something else?

Although late or light rain in WA and SA is limiting the upper potential for Australian production tonnage, the silver lining for barley is that more area have switched from canola to barley. The area sown to barley has increased 7% year on year and is slightly ahead of the 5-year average. If conditions do return to normal, barley will be a beneficiary and production would approach the higher estimates.

Given a steady domestic demand, the market is still factoring in another exportable surplus of over 7mmt, consistent with last month.