Australian Barley Exports Pivot Back to China

Since the Chinese Ministry of Commence announced on the 4th August 2023 they were removing all claims against the Australian barley industry and tariffs would be removed immediately, barley exports to China have rocketed back to life.

In the shipping period October 2022 to September 2023, China had taken just 214kmt of Australian barley, most of it in September 2023. Since October 2023 and up until the end of May 2024, nearly 5mmt of Australian feed, FAQ and malting barley has been shipped to China! Western Australia has lead the charge exporting 2.6mmt, South Australia exported 1.3mmt and Victoria supplied 1.0mmt in this period.

While the reinstatement of such an enormous market undoubtedly gives the Australian industry options, exports into all other markets are being dramatically impacted. Supply to countries within the Asia Pacific outside of China are being curtailed, the industry has exited much of the Middle Eastern market, particularly Saudi Arabia, and shipments to Mexico are less than half of what they were.

It’s clear the Australian industry has reacted to pricing signals and these are difficult to resist. The move puts the Australian barley industry back where it was 5-10 years ago where China makes up 80% of export sales and takes 40% of the crop. While the shift is understandable, any loss of market diversification is fundamentally not ideal and should be an enduring topic for the Australian industry to consider in the months and years ahead.