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Southern State peak bodies updated their crop estimates last month. Since ABARES released its September report there has been frost, wind, dryness, rain and hail and these new forecasts have provided a fresh look at the expected Australian crop production for 24/25.

The GIWA (Grains Industry of Western Australia) forecast for Barley has improved on October rains; South Australia’s PIRSA (Department of Primary Industries and Regions) pegged their forecasts back on the ongoing dry conditions in that State while Victoria’s GIAV is more optimistic about Victoria’s crop following its crop tour in mid October. Reports of increased tonnages coming off in northern NSW is being offset by reports of crop damage from frost in the Riverina and Queensland is still on track to reach record levels. It means, we have revised the Australian barley estimate up by 0.6mmt, to give a national crop of 11.5mmt, which equal to the 5-year average.

With most of the QLD and NNSW harvest complete, SA’s harvest well under way, WA’s barley harvest one quarter complete and most other regions gearing up to start, there is some interesting news coming from the trade about malting selection rates. Whilst selection rates are reaching historic levels in the northern regions and typical levels in Victoria, significantly low rates of selection are being reported in WA and presumably similar levels are being seen in SA.

Although the total availability of Australian malting barley is forecast to be close to it’s average 3mmt, more than 70% of it will be in the Eastern States. WA and SA, normally big exporters of malting barley, could either be short malting barley for domestic maltsters or have the grain in the wrong zones, as what seems to be the case in the Esperance region of WA. If the forecasts turn out to be correct, this will certainly disrupt the plans of many in the trade!

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