El Nino Persists but the Positive IOD is Likely Past its Peak – BOM

If you are living in the South East of Australia at the moment, you are probably wondering where has the El Nino gone! From late November, rain has persisted in this region, which is unfortunately just in time to make harvest in many areas of the South East difficult!

On the 19th September 2023, Australia’s BOM declared that El Nino and positive IOD conditions had developed and advised hotter and drier conditions would persist in Eastern Australia until the end of February 2024.

For the three months September – November 2023 indeed these conditions were evident for most of the Eastern Australian grain belt and in fact dry conditions were also evident in South Australia and Western Australia, with most areas in these States experiencing very low to the lowest rainfalls on record. This has impacted yields.

The BOM forecast on the 5th December that El Nino conditions will still persist between December – February but the positive IOD conditions had peaked. Although not specifically referring the unwelcomed late November – December rainfall that is impacting the quality of standing crops, they have advised unusually warm sea surface temperatures (in fact, the highest on record) in the Tasman sea can cause above average summer rainfall in parts of Australia.

It will be interesting to see the next update from the BOM as we head into the April – June sowing window for Crop 24/25.