Harvest Full Steam Ahead in the West but Halted in the East

The Australian winter crop harvest this year started early and has been progressing at a rapid rate. According to the weekly receival data from major bulk handlers, as at late November, they have collectively received 14.4mmt of all crops and on the assumption significant volumes are received outside the major handling systems, the Kardinian and RGS believe nearly 20mmt of winter crop has been harvested as at 20th November.

September’s ABARES 23/24 winter crop forecast had the Australian winter crop at 41.3mmt and on this basis, approximately half of the Winter crop is in the bin.

It will be interesting to see the next ABARES forecast, particularly for Queensland. The harvest in Queensland has been completed so I would expect the total State forecast will be slashed; a believable outcome given the later part of the season in this Northern cropping region.

The early harvest start and its progression is particularly good news given the recent inclement weather in the East and the South Eastern forecast for late November/early December. With good weather forecast in Western Australia and South Australia and half the NSW crop in the bin, the risk of weather damage over the first half of December is restricted mostly to Victoria and the Riverina and equates to less than a quarter of the Australian total crop.

We all hope the latest Eastern weather system will pass quickly and harvest starts again, without any significant downgrading!