ABARES optimistic about Australia’s 25/26 Winter crop, Barley production forecast 12.8mmt

In it’s first Australian Crop Report for season 25/26, ABARES recently released a surprisingly optimistic forecast for this year’s Winter crop considering the drought currently gripping the South East of the country.

Citing national planting to again reach a historically high level of 24.9million hectares and a forecast that weather conditions will moderate across the country from June, ABARES has Australia’s winter crop pegged at 55.6mmt. This is just 8% lower than last year’s crop and would see this season’s crop be the 6th largest on record.

Barley production is forecast to fall by 3% year on year to 12.8mmt but would still represent a 9% increase over the 10 year average and be the 6th largest barley crop should this eventuate.

MaltNews has the national malting selection rate at 31% and estimate the collection of malting grades will be highest in areas that are currently well set up with the highest soil moisture.

This would give a national malting barley production of just under 4mmt, similar to the 24/25 season and leave an exportable surplus of 2.7mmt.

Whilst the commitment of Growers for investment in Winter cropping is encouraging, ABARES’ forecast is highly contingent on adequate and regular in-crop rainfall across all areas with the exception of the Northern zone. Longer term rainfall forecasts are positive so let’s hope average seasonal conditions establish themselves soon!