Trump’s reshaping of global trade is underway: what’s the impact so far?

If the Trump political apparatus wanted disruption to American and Global economies after the first 100 days of its tenure, it’s got it!

The American weaponizing of US tariffs to extract advantageous trade deals is underway and may work for the US at various levels, but the haphazard method that’s being applied is crippling government and business confidence globally. A good business decision today can quickly become a bad decision following a Trump ‘Truth Social’ post or ‘Air Force One’ remark and this is stalling business investment and collapsing consumer confidence in most markets.

Trump and his administration will say this is the medicine the USA needed but is the medicine killing the patient? No one could have expected the scale of disruption and level of uncertainty stemming from the shambolic governance of the world’s largest economy.

Key economic indicators generally run a quarter behind the actual economy but leading metrics for Q1 2025 are starting to appear. Container trade either side of ‘Liberation Day’ saw global forward bookings halve and a Reuters poll of Economists forecast global GDP to contract by 0.3% to +2.3% in 2025 with the US taking most of the hit: down 0.8% to 1.4%. The US released it’s first quarter 2025 GDP figures early May and there was a 0.3% GDP contraction. The US had a drop in government spending and a dramatic 5% decline in imports (presumably tariff related) offset by an increase in consumer spending (most likely again, a pre-tariff move) and jump in investment (just as the Trump doctor ordered). Pundits have differing views about a US or Global recession but given the US’s first quarter result, this is a risk.

Currently, the US has scaled back ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs to 10% for all countries, excluding China where a 145% tariff is in place. Tariff exclusions under the USMCA FTA remain applicable meaning barley can currently move across Canadian, American and Mexican borders tariff free. Global barley trade appears to be mostly unaffected, so far…