Australian barley crop on track to be a bin buster!

The Australian barley industry is on track to harvest a record 25/26 crop.

Following the release of the ABARES Australian Crop Report in September, which was bullish for barley, WA’s GIWA and SA’s PIRSA organizations have since revised each States’ estimates up. Spring conditions have proved to be better than expected and with a 6% yoy increase in cultivation area in WA, that State is expected to break its barley production record set in 2022, while SA is forecast to show a 64% increase in barley production year on year.

There are differing opinions about the potential of the barley crop on the East coast. The Northern regions will be huge. Central/Southern NSW and Victoria, however, have had mixed conditions which is tempering high production expectations in some areas. Despite this, on a State basis, most in the trade generally agree with ABARES estimates.

Given this, we forecast the national barley crop to reach 15.44mmt this year, which would be a record and exceed the previous 20/21 high point of 14.65mt by nearly 1mmt! This would be an incredible achievement given the low rainfall decile readings in the Southeast of the country.

Harvesting progress
Unlike the sowing of the crop this year, which was up to 4-6 weeks late in many areas in the Southeast, harvest is early and accelerating. As at the end of the first week of November we estimate 20% of the crop is in the bin. The Queensland crop is mostly finished at 96% complete, and Northern NSW and WA plus the Esperance area is advancing at a rapid rate. Rain over the first two weeks in the Southeast has stalled progress.