ABARES forecasts Australia’s Winter crop to be the third largest on record

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) has increased its Australian Winter crop production forecast to 62.0 mmt, +11% from its June publication.

This size crop would equate to a 2% increase over the 2023-24 crop, a 26% improvement over the ten average to 2023-24 and make it the third most productive year on record.

ABARES advised their forecast reflected an expected improvement in production in Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria and above average production in Northern NSW and Queensland. They advised that despite a dry and patchy start to the Winter cropping season in South Australia and Victoria, improved seasonal conditions throughout Winter have boosted production prospects across most regions. The only problematic area of note is Southern NSW where rainfall has not been plentiful, providing just enough moisture to maintain growth. More in-crop rainfall will be required to maintain the soil moisture profile to support crop development in this region.

The agency has forecast Barley production to increase by 10% to 14.6 mmt from the 2023-24 crop, which equates to a 23% increase over the 10-year average. If this were to be realized, this would be the second largest Australian barley crop on record, just short of the 14.65mmt record set in 2020-21 and would leave Australia with a significant quantity of barley available for export.

At a malting selection rate of 31%, which given the season is conservative, the available feed barley for export would be more than 6mmt and malting grade well over 3mmt.